[TL; DR]
October’s crypto bullish momentum may see ETH price surpass $3,000.
Weak institutional inflow into ETH and ETF ETFs resulted in Ethereum’s underperformance during the past several months.
Technological innovation, Fed rate cuts and a rise in ETH staking may drive the Ethereum price up.
Introduction
The cryptocurrency market had been subdued in the last few months due to lack of strong catalysts for bullish rallies. However, by the end of September the market sentiment started improving as a result of the dovish United States monetary policy. By the looks of things its expansionary monetary policy may persist for the remainder of 2024. The interesting thing is that historically October has been a very bullish month for digital currencies. Major crypto assets such as bitcoin, ETH and Solana (SOL) often perform well during the month. As a result of this past cryptocurrency market trend, this analysis looks at how ETH crypto may perform during October.
Ethereum's Struggles Around The $3,000 Mark
Several factors such as weak institutional inflow and waning investor confidence has forced the Ethereum price to stagnate below $3,000. Despite its recent bearish cues, analysts believe that the asset will likely perform better in October. A shift in market sentiment, associated with October, should help push the ETH price towards $3,000. At the time of writing, ETH which is down by 0.3% within the last 24 hours, is trading at $2,381. Sadly, the number one altcoin has been in red within the last 14 days where it lost by 6.3%. Based on the current price action ETH is looking bullish. For example, its 24-hour price chart is showing bullish momentum, as the next graph indicates. ETH 24-Hour Price Chart – Coingecko
As the image shows for the past 17 hours ETH has been trending upwards, with minor retracements. On the 7-day price chart ETH is forming a strong demand base consisting of several pin-bars which indicates the potential for a market rally. ETH 24-Hour Price Chart – Coingecko
As the picture indicates, a demand base has completed and there is an indication of a price rise. Based on its current market trend, risk averse traders may buy Ethereum with the hope that the uptrend will become stronger and stronger. Basically, October is associated with the crypto market resurgence, a reason why some analysts refer to it as Uptober. However, some skeptics that believe that the crypto market may perform badly during the month, call October “Rektober”.
Shift in Sentiment and Price Action in October 2024
A report by the NFTevening team noted that the investor mood has remained optimistic despite a depressed September. About 63% of the surveyed population believe that October 2024 will be a good year for cryptocurrencies due to the possibility of a crypto rally. 27.6% of the participants think that a crypto rally will start in October. One reason for the bullish mood is that crypto adoption will continue to rise during the remainder of the year. Pertaining this NFTevening said, “As October approaches, investor sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with around 75.3% predicting a bullish Uptober.”
As a result of the anticipated bullish October period 20% of the respondents said that they purchased additional crypto assets to capitalize on the possible bullish cue. As a fact, some analysts expect the market to rally by between 5% and 48.3%. Basically, bitcoin’s historically strong performance in October has helped to increase crypto investor confidence. According to Coinglass, since 2020 the bitcoin price has risen by between 5% and 40% within October. The factors that are likely to lead to a bullish October include a rise in institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, upcoming friendly regulations and the outcome of the United States Presidential elections.
According to the survey, many participants say that Ethereum, Solana and BNB will likely outperform most crypto assets. On the other hand, Coinglass has reported that Ethereum’s average returns in previous Q4s is 20.8%. Therefore, if history repeats itself the ETH price may surge past $3,000.
Experts on Ethereum's bullish and bearish prospects
Some experts have also weighed in with the view that ETH may rally in Q4, 2024. For example, crypto analyst Ted thinks that ETH will gain in October and fare well for the remainder of the year. Posting on X, he said that Eth may rise to $4,000 this year, as the image below shows. ETH Price to Reach $4,000 -x.com/tedpillows
Several other analysts have concurred that ETH may rally in October. For example, Crypto Yapper said, “Ethereum will gain momentum in the coming weeks/months!” On the other hand, Boeckiel believes that ETH may reach $10,000 between Q4, 2024 and Q1, 2025. An Ethereum analyst and enthusiast, Cryptokaleo also thinks that ETH will surge in the last quarter of the year. He used the following graph to illustrate ETH’s next price move. Possible ETH Price Action – x.com/Cryptokaleo
Commenting on the possible ETH price action Crypto Kaleo said, “Still believe we have a bit of chop in the lower bounds of this range before we send to new highs, but if you're asking yourself "Is this a good place to start bidding?" My answer is yes.”
External Factors Affecting Ethereum's Path to $3,000
Several factors may influence ETH price to rise above $3,000. First, crypto projects dealing with AI innovations may bring new users to the Ethereum blockchain which may lead to a rise in demand for ETH. The introduction of new restaking platforms on the blockchain as well as an increase in ETH staking will likely attract more ETH investors. In addition, an increase in macro-liquidity due to expansionary monetary policies may lure institutions and individuals to invest in ETH. Fo instance, the recent Federal Reserve rate cuts may increase macro-liquidity in the near future. Of note, the Federal Reserve has promised to institute more interest rates cut during the remainder of the year. If the Fed reduces interest rates closer to 3.5%, the Ethereum staking yield, ETH may regain its investment appeal and attract new investments.
One factor that has, however, weighed down on the Ethereum price is the huge capital outflow from spot ETH ETFS. Since their inceptions in July the ETH ETFs have registered massive outflows which has reduced ETH investor confidence. One reason the spot Ethereum ETFs have underperformed since their launch is that crypto ETF investors have favored bitcoin ETFS over ETH ETFs. However, an increase in macro liquidity may lead to a rise in investment in ETH ETFs.
Investor Sentiment and MVRV Ratio Analysis
Despite the positive market sentiment analysts have shown, recent developments have indicated ETH bearish cues. For example, Ethereum's 30-day MVRV Ratio indicates that ETH is in a danger zone. At the moment, ETH’s MVRV ratio is 6.5%. Basically, the MVRV ratio is a metric that measures an asset’s profit or loss at any given time. If the MVRV ratio is between 3% and 12% most investors sell their assets since they will be a profit zone. The following graph shows ETH’s current MVRV ratio. Ethereum MVRV Ratio. Ethereum MVRV Ratio. Source: Santiment
Therefore, ETH’s current elevated MVRV ratio means that many Ethereum investors may start selling the cryptocurrency which creates high selling pressure. Therefore, if the trend persists ETH may enter a selling-induced correction which will prevent the asset price from rising towards $3,000.
However, Ethereum's Coin Holding Time is showing an ETH bullish outlook. This metric indicates the period that an asset has been held without being used for any transaction. As a fact, the ETH Coins Holding Time rose by 58% within the last week of September as the following graph shows. Ethereum Coins Holding Time - IntoTheBlock
The rise in this indicator shows that ETH investors have been accumulating and holding the coin even when its price has been falling. Such a trend is essential for the recovery of the cryptocurrency.
The other indicator of a potential bullish October for ETH has been the rise in whale buying activity in the last days of September. Data on Santiment shows that the whale transaction count has been increasing since August. In fact, the whales that hold between 100,000 and 1 million coins have been accumulating the asset. Specifically, ETH large holders surged from 19.83 ETH Million to 20.61 Million ETH between August and September. Such an accumulation is linked to a bottom, showing that the asset price may rise in the near future.
ETH Price Prediction: A Closer Look
ETH, which has been in a descending channel, has broken below the support level. Since it is trading at $2,381 its price may further fall to $2,930. If the selling pressure increases it may target $2,170 which will likely invalidate the current bullish thesis.
On a positive note, the ETH price may surge towards $2,600 in the near future. If the buying pressure keeps on rising the price of the ETH crypto may reach $2,644. Based on the ETH price prediction, if its value reaches that level it may head towards $2,690 on its path to $3,202.
Conclusion
Although the ETH price was depressed during the past several months, analysts believe that it may surge in the near future. A rise in AI innovations and the possible increase in macro-liquidity will likely create a bullish ETH momentum in October. Despite the MVRV ratio showing that ETH is in a danger zone, the whale accumulation since August and Ethereum’s Coin Holding Time are bullish indications for the number one altcoin.
FAQs About Ethereum
How high can ETH go in 2024?
ETH may reach $3,200 by the end of 2024. However, its price performance will depend on the level of liquidity in the market and the existing cryptocurrency regulations.
How high can Ethereum go in 2025?
The price of Ethereum may reach $5,500 in 2025. It may fluctuate between $3,000 and $5,555 during the year.
Can Ethereum classic reach $10,000?
The Ethereum classic may reach $10,000 by the end of 2025 depending on the existing market sentiment and economic environment. Competition from other leading cryptocurrencies may also influence its price movement.
How much will 1 Ethereum be worth in 2040?
Based on current predictions the price of 1 Ethereum may fluctuate around $90,000 by 2040? Nevertheless, its adoption rate, utility, regulatory environment and economic conditions will influence its price movement.