[TL; DR]
Notcoin faces a possibility of strong correction in the near future.
A rise in whale buying activity may help to prevent a correction.
RSI, MACD and moving averages are tools traders can use to predict NOT price movements.
Introduction
Notcoin, one of the leading Telegram tap-to-earn games, has the support of over 35 million users. The game revolves around the accumulation of in-game rewards in the form of virtual tokens which they can convert into NOT, the gaming app’s native cryptocurrency. NOT, listed on several crypto exchanges including Gate.io, Binance, Bybit and OKX was launched on 16 May 2024. In this article, we look at NOT’s price movement during the third quarter of this year.
Understanding NotCoin's Current Trajectory
During the third week of September NOT showed signs of distress despite the positive market performance of several cryptocurrencies and equities. However, from time to time it shows strong bullish outlooks. For instance, during the 24-hour period that stretched between 18 and 19 September NOT gained by 8% while its volume surged by 85%. Since the beginning of 2024 many crypto investors have shown much interest in tokens that are based on The Open Network (TON).
On the 19th of September NOT was trading at $0.0078, a value that was 73% below its all-time high (ATH). Although NOT was targeting $0.011 it faced significant hurdles. The coin needed to rise past $0.080, one of its strongest resistance levels. However, in the past its upward price movement was stalled at that level several times. Failure to break above that level would force its price to fall by around10% to reach $0.0072. During the mentioned period the NOT’s relative strength index had a reading slightly below 50 which indicated a bearish momentum. Basically, the RSI is a technical indicator that shows possible directions and sizes of price changes. For example, an RSI reading of above 50 shows a bullish outlook. On the other hand, a value below 50 indicates bearishness.
The NOT’s Fibonacci retracement during the third week of September showed that the token price was heading towards $0.0085. Unfortunately, a few days later NOT lost its upward momentum and its price declined again. Despite that prior bearish pressure the NOT coin price surged within the last 14 days. At the time of writing NOT is selling at $0.0093, after gaining by 6% within the last 24 hours. Overall, though, its value increased by 26% during the last 7 days. Based on the current crypto market trends and the digital currency stability Notcoin is still in danger of a strong cryptocurrency correction which can erode its fortnight gains. The NOT weekly price chart shows that the token is within a retracement, as the following diagram indicates. NOT Weekly Price Chart – Coingecko
As the graph indicates, the last bearish candlestick (red) has broken the low of the bullish bar (green). That shows that the downtrend may continue. As things stand, the strongest support level is around $0.0085. If the drawdown persists the Notcoin value may drop below $0.80 as it eyes $0.072 and $0.069.
Several factors have contributed to NOT’s current bearish pressure. First, around 19 September there was a decline in NOT network activity which shows loss of interest in the tap-to-earn Telegram based game. At that time, there was a 41.9% drop in new addresses and a 49.2% fall in active addresses as indicated by IntoTheBlock data. Decrease in NOT Active Addresses - IntoTheBlock
In line with this development, NOT’s active address ratio has been falling since that time, showing waning user engagement. The following graph indicates the change in NOT’s active addresses during the third week of September. NOT Active Address Ratio - IntoTheBlock
By 17 September, for example, NOT’s 30-day active address ratio had dropped from 3.76% on 5 September to 1.13% on 17 September. These statistics, including a low trading volume, indicate strong bearish pressure. It seems that the positive crypto market sentiment that emerged after the Federal Reserve rate cuts averted NOT’s free-falling. However, the danger is not yet over since it is showing bearishness on its weekly and monthly price charts. NOT Monthly Price Chart – Coingecko
Based on the NOT’s monthly price chart, if the token price continues falling its strongest support will be at $0.0072.
Read also: DOGS vs. Notcoin Comparative Analysis
Notcoin Free-Fall Impending: Preventative Measures for Investors
We have already noted that NOT faces a strong risk of a price correction that may push its price below $0.0072. If the bears keep pushing the Notcoin value may fall below $0.0069 and heads towards $0.00572. As a result, many NOT investors may enter the loss zone within the next few weeks. Looking at the current situation the causes of Notcoin’s poor performance would be pessimism on the part of the investors following a fall in the hype surrounding Telegram tokens. With the current NOT price movement its investors should change their investment strategies. For example, they may use the buy and hold strategy.
Right now, the best means to avert a strong correction is to increase NOT’s buying pressure. In this case, the bulls should buy and hold much more Notcoins. And the surest way of avoiding crypto correction is for most NOT investors to buy more Notcoin and avoid selling much now.
How to Predict NOT’s Price Movement: Key Market Indicators and Analysis Tools
We have already looked at how NOT investors can use the relative strength index RSI to predict the token’s future price movements. Let’s focus on a few other key indicators and tools to use to attain that goal.
Moving Averages: Apart from using RSI, investors can use moving averages to forecast the cryptocurrency's price moves. By plotting two or more moving averages on the NOT price chart the investors will be able to tell the possible directions its price may take. In this case, moving average crossovers will help. For example, if a shorter moving average crosses above a longer moving average it is a bullish indication. On the other hand, if a shorter moving average falls below the long-term moving average it is a bearish signal. The investors can use simple moving averages (SMAs) or exponential moving averages (EMAs) to predict the Notcoin’s price movements.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): This is another important technical indicator which crypto traders can use to forecast prices of different cryptocurrencies, including NOT. The trader, for example, can get insight into an asset’s price movement by using MACD crossovers, involving the MACD line and the signal line. If the MACD line crosses above the signal line it is a bullish signal. On the other hand, if the MACD line falls below the signal line it is a bearish signal.
Other Technical Indicators: In addition to the above indicators traders should use volume analysis and time frame analysis to gauge the volatility of digital assets and to pin-point possible price reversal points. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), the Fibonacci Retracement indicator and the Average True Range (ATR) are some of the other top technical indicators for traders.
Conclusion
NOT is showing a bearish outlook on its weekly and monthly time frames. An increase in its selling pressure may result in a strong correction which may push its price towards $0.0052. At the moment, NOT is priced at $0.0093 after gaining within the last two weeks. To avoid the crypto correction the bulls may need to buy and hold large amounts of the token and avoid selling much.