[TL; DR]
If the bitcoin price fails to flip above the $62,000 it may have a death cross.
Currently, the bitcoin price is ranging between $54,500 and $61,314.
Investors should study several technical indicators and price action before making investment decisions.
Introduction
Based on the current technical indicators bitcoin has no definite direction it is heading to. This calls for investors to be patient and be extra- careful when making investment decisions. The moving averages, one of the commonest trading technical indicators, show a high possibility of bitcoin becoming more bearish than before. In this analysis, we focus on the possibility of a death cross within the next few days or weeks.
Is the Market Moving towards a Critical Point as Bitcoin Heads towards a Death Cross?
As of 14 August it became more likely that bitcoin was heading towards a death cross. During the Asian trading hours the bitcoin price spiked towards the key zone around $62,000. This is a very critical zone since bitcoin has always faced stiff resistance there. It is important to note that $62,066 aligns with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level that was drawn from the swing high of $70,079 on 29 July 29 to $49,101 on 5 August. As of 7 August Bitcoin traded between $60,763 and $61,357 during the Asian session.
If the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level holds as a key resistance level alongside the 100-day Exponential Moving Average at around $62,652 that may lead to selling pressure which will push its price down. A failure to shoot above the $62,066 level would result in a downward spiral by around 20% which might force it to retest $49,917. Additional bitcoin analysis shows a great possibility of a price slide down. Both the Awesome Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings were below the neutral points showing a bearish disposition.
However, another price movement scenario may unfold. If the BTC price rises above $65,596 which is the high for 2 August it might retest $69,648, the weekly resistance level. Looking at both scenarios, the $62,000 price level is significant as it indicates the future direction of the bitcoin price and the performance of the entire cryptocurrency market. Also, the $62,000 is a level upon which short term traders can base their crypto trading strategies. In other words, it may function as a sustained price rejection or support level.
Relevant article: Best Indicators for Crypto Price Prediction Analysis
Bitcoin technical analysis shows that the crypto asset is heading towards a death cross, which occurs when its downward-sloping 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below its 200-day SMA. As of 14 August the 50-day SMA stood at $61,998 while the 200-day one was $61,882. The following graph shows the impending death cross. BTC/USD 1-day chart: TradingView
As observed on the diagram, bitcoin could only avoid the death cross if its price flips above $62,000. Once the price rises above that mark it will become a key support level. In his podcast, Benjamin Cowen, a popular trader, predicted the possible bitcoin death cross.
When a death cross occurs it acts as a strong warning of a possible bitcoin price fall in the coming days, weeks or months depending on the chart it appears on. Nevertheless, the results of a death cross are often mixed depending on the existing macroeconomic conditions. In some situations, as in the case of the 2023 bitcoin death cross, a rally followed it.
Recent news: BTC Price Plunges to $56K, Experiences Brief Uptick 2023 Bitcoin Death Cross – x.com
As the graph denotes, a few days after the death cross the bitcoin price surged. The situation was different in 2019, 2021 and 2022 when the death crosses were followed by sharp price falls.
Understanding the 2024 Death Cross
The effects of the 2024 bitcoin death cross are not yet definite. However, in general terms, a death cross is a bearish signal. Depending on the time frame chart it appears the bearish period may be long or short. However, much historical evidence indicates that a death cross may trigger a bull run depending on the prevailing market sentiments, regulatory environment and other factors.
Based on the current bitcoin analysis some crypto experts believe that the bitcoin price may even fall to $40,000 before shooting towards $100,000. This year’s bitcoin forecast is different from the previous ones considering that there is a watershed presidential election coming soon in the United States. The election is against a pro-crypto presidential aspirant Donald Trump and Kamala Harris who is believed to be “ant-crypto.”
As per the views of several crypto analysts both the death cross and golden cross have not been very reliable in predicting future bitcoin price movements. In most of the cases the death crosses turned out to be bear traps. However, trader Tardigrade has given an illustration of how bitcoin performed after the 2016 to 2018 super rally. Source: x.com
At press time, investors could buy bitcoin at $58,420, after it gained by 0.2% within the last 24 hours. However, it has lost by 10.6% within the last 30 days which still indicates a threat of a death cross. Currently, though, bitcoin is ranging between $54,500 and $61,314 which indicates a high possibility of a death cross in the near future.
Current Bitcoin Market Analysis: Strategies Investors can use
The current market analysis shows that bitcoin is within a trick range and under unclear market conditions. With that, its price can move either ways, up or down. One positive thing is that most of the recipients of the Mt Gox bitcoin are hodling them which has abated its sharp price fall. At the moment, Mt Gox has already redistributed more than half of the bitcoin it used to hold.
In light of the current bitcoin forecast investors should remain cautious and take cues from the behavior of technical indicators, especially the medium term and long term moving averages, relative strength index and the Ichimoku cloud. A renowned crypto expert and analyst Markus Thielen who is the head of Research at 10x Research has cautioned the investors on making hasty investment decisions. He has advised his followers to wait for one of the following scenarios.
First, they can buy bitcoin after its price has fallen to around $40,000 or buy after it has broken out of the $60,000 - $70,000. In either case the asset would have established a clear price direction. However, the investors who are risk averse can buy the dip and hold.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is facing a threat of the death cross if the 50-day simple moving average keeps falling. A death cross occurs when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. On the other hand, a golden cross takes place if the 50-day SMA moves above the 200-day SMA. Currently, the bitcoin price is within a range of $54,500 and $61,314.